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Global
Change Impacts on Biodiversity
Accelerated
climate change, the modification of habitats, and species invasions
are among the main threats to biodiversity in the present century.
Recent changes in climate and habitat availability and the presence
of alien invasive species have already resulted in observable changes
in the phenology, reproductive success, abundance, community structure,
and geographical distribution of plant and animal species. However,
it is far from clear how such impacts on biodiversity can be forecasted.
I am interested in quantifying global change impacts on species distributions
and community assembly with the aim to (1) better understand the drivers
of biodiversity change, and (2) to develop predictive models for conservation
and global change management. I gather, simulate, compile and analyse
data on species distributions, land use, and climate and employ ecoinformatic
tools to assess biodiversity consequences under global change.
Keywords:
biodiversity change, biotic interactions, climate change, forecasting,
habitat destruction, model uncertainty.
Select
publications:
- Kissling,
W.D., Schnittler, M., Seddon, P.J., Dickinson, K.J.M. &
J.M. Lord (2005): Invasion ecology of the alien tussock grass Nardus
stricta (Poaceae) at Lake Pukaki, Canterbury, New Zealand. New
Zealand Journal of Botany 43: 601–612. [Abstract]
- Rüger,
N., Gutiérrez, Á.G., Kissling, W.D., Armesto,
J.J. & Huth, A. (2007): Ecological impacts of different harvesting
scenarios for temperate evergreen rain forest in southern Chile
– a simulation experiment. Forest Ecology and Management
252: 52–66. [Abstract]
[Feature in ICAN Newsletter]
- Rüger,
N., Williams-Linera, G., Kissling, W.D. & Huth, A. (2008):
Long-term impacts of fuelwood extraction on a tropical montane cloud
forest. Ecosystems 11: 868–881. [Abstract]
- Kissling,
W.D., Field, R., Korntheuer, H., Heyder, U. & Böhning-Gaese,
K. (2010): Woody plants and the prediction of climate change impacts
on bird diversity. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
B 365: 2035–2045. [Abstract]
Figure:
Projected future changes in bird species richness across Kenya depend
on how woody plant distributions are included in model forecasts.
(a) Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody
plant richness to climate change, and (b) forecasts assuming
no change, i.e. a time lag, in the response of woody plant richness
to climate change. Values are changes in bird species richness between
1960-1989 and 2069-2098 based on median predictions across 15 climate
change scenarios (from Kissling et al. 2010).
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W.
Daniel Kissling
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