Spatial
Risk Assessment of Puma Predation on Livestock in Patagonia, Argentina
In this project
we used knowledge on habitat preference and distribution of pumas
and provided a first assessment of the spatial risk of livestock to
puma depredation in Patagonian ranches, Argentina. In an initial step,
we developed a rule-based habitat model in a Geographic Information
System (GIS) to predict the distribution of puma habitat at a regional
scale in Patagonia. We then used empirically derived puma occurrence
records from Patagonian ranches (i) to test our regional habitat predictions,
and (ii) to evaluate if paddock characteristics (vegetation cover,
topography, and distance to roads) contribute to explain puma occurrences
within ranches. Finally, we simulated three livestock management scenarios
differing in their spatial and seasonal allocation of livestock to
paddocks, and compared the likelihood of livestock exposure to pumas
among scenarios. At a regional scale, 22% of the study region was
predicted to be suitable for puma home ranges (see Figure below).
The greatest uncertainty in these predictions resulted from assumptions
on woody vegetation cover requirements at the home range scale. Within
ranches, puma occurrences were positively associated with paddock
topography, woody vegetation cover on paddocks, and proximity to predicted
regional puma habitat. Comparing the risk of depredation by puma among
simulated livestock management scenarios implied that rotating livestock
during seasons may help to reduce the likelihood of livestock exposure
to pumas. Our results show the usefulness of rule-based habitat models
for describing broad-scale carnivore distribution and for aiding risk
assessments to mitigate conflicts between predators and human activities.
Keywords:
Akaike Information Criterion, carnivore conservation, Geographic Information
System, human-carnivore conflict, logistic regression, model uncertainty,
rule-based habitat model.
Publication:
- Kissling,
W.D., Fernández, N. & Paruelo, J.M. (2009): Spatial
risk assessment of livestock exposure to pumas in Patagonia, Argentina.
Ecography 32: 807–817. [Abstract]
Figure
- Vegetation and predicted puma habitat in the western portion of
the extra-Andean Patagonian steppes, Argentina. A: Vegetation
map showing the approximately 94 000 km² study area. Black =
woody vegetation patches > 500 ha; Dark grey = shrub steppes; Light
grey = grass steppes and prairies; White = water, snow and rocks.
B: Predicted puma habitat based on rule-based habitat model.
Black = 50-100% woody vegetation cover in window of 100 km² size,
dark grey = 25-50% woody vegetation cover, white = 10-25% woody vegetation
cover, light grey = < 10% woody vegetation cover (also contains
excluded area at the edge of the map), X = location of ranches.
